Potential gains in life expectancy by attaining daily ambient fine particulate matter pollution standards in mainland China: A modeling study based on nationwide data

English version

Autoři: Jinlei Qi ^aff001; Zengliang Ruan ^aff002; Zhengmin (Min) Qian ^aff003; Peng Yin ^aff001; Yin Yang ^aff002; Bipin Kumar Acharya ^aff002; Lijun Wang ^aff001; Hualiang Lin ^aff002
Působiště autorů: National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China ^aff001; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China ^aff002; College for Public Health & Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, United States of America ^aff003
Vyšlo v časopise: Potential gains in life expectancy by attaining daily ambient fine particulate matter pollution standards in mainland China: A modeling study based on nationwide data. PLoS Med 17(1): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003027
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003027

Souhrn

Background

Ambient fine particulate matter pollution (PM_2.5) is one leading cause of disease burden, but no study has quantified the association between daily PM_2.5 exposure and life expectancy. We aimed to assess the potential benefits in life expectancy by attaining the daily PM_2.5 standards in 72 cities of China during 2013–2016.

Methods and findings

We applied a two-stage approach for the analysis. At the first stage, we used a generalized additive model (GAM) with a Gaussian link to examine the city-specific short-term association between daily PM_2.5 and years of life lost (YLL); at the second stage, a random-effects meta-analysis was used to generate the regional and national estimations. We further estimated the potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) by assuming that ambient PM_2.5 has met the Chinese National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS, 75 μg/m³) or the ambient air quality guideline (AQG) of the World Health Organization (WHO) (25 μg/m³). We also calculated the attributable fraction (AF), which denoted the proportion of YLL attributable to a higher-than-standards daily mean PM_2.5 concentration. During the period from January 18, 2013 to December 31, 2016, we recorded 1,226,849 nonaccidental deaths in the study area. We observed significant associations between daily PM_2.5 and YLL: each 10 μg/m³ increase in three-day–averaged (lag₀₂) PM_2.5 concentrations corresponded to an increment of 0.43 years of life lost (95% CI: 0.29–0.57). We estimated that 168,065.18 (95% CI: 114,144.91–221,985.45) and 68,684.95 (95% CI: 46,648.79–90,721.11) years of life lost can be avoided by achieving WHO’s AQG and Chinese NAAQS in the study area, which corresponded to 0.14 (95% CI: 0.09–0.18) and 0.06 (95% CI: 0.04–0.07) years of gain in life expectancy for each death in these cities. We observed differential regional estimates across the 7 regions, with the highest gains in the Northwest region (0.28 years of gain [95% CI: 0.06–0.49]) and the lowest in the North region (0.08 [95% CI: 0.02–0.15]). Furthermore_, using WHO’s AQG and Chinese NAAQS as the references, we estimated that 1.00% (95% CI: 0.68%–1.32%) and 0.41% (95% CI: 0.28%–0.54%) of YLL could be attributable to the PM_2.5 exposure at the national level. Findings from this study were mainly limited by the unavailability of data on individual PM_2.5 exposure.

Conclusions

This study indicates that significantly longer life expectancy could be achieved by a reduction in the ambient PM_2.5 concentrations. It also highlights the need to formulate a stricter ambient PM_2.5 standard at both national and regional levels of China to protect the population’s health.

Klíčová slova:

Aerodynamics – Air pollution – Air quality – Humidity – China – Life expectancy – Particulates – Public and occupational health

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