CINeMA: An approach for assessing confidence in the results of a network meta-analysis
Autoři:
Adriani Nikolakopoulou aff001; Julian P. T. Higgins aff002; Theodoros Papakonstantinou aff001; Anna Chaimani aff003; Cinzia Del Giovane aff005; Matthias Egger aff001; Georgia Salanti aff001
Působiště autorů:
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
aff001; Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
aff002; Université de Paris, Research Center of Epidemiology and Statistics Sorbonne Paris Cité (CRESS UMR1153), INSERM, INRA, Paris, France
aff003; Cochrane France, Paris, France
aff004; Institute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
aff005
Vyšlo v časopise:
CINeMA: An approach for assessing confidence in the results of a network meta-analysis. PLoS Med 17(4): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003082
Kategorie:
Guidelines and Guidance
doi:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003082
Souhrn
Background
The evaluation of the credibility of results from a meta-analysis has become an important part of the evidence synthesis process. We present a methodological framework to evaluate confidence in the results from network meta-analyses, Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis (CINeMA), when multiple interventions are compared.
Methodology
CINeMA considers 6 domains: (i) within-study bias, (ii) reporting bias, (iii) indirectness, (iv) imprecision, (v) heterogeneity, and (vi) incoherence. Key to judgments about within-study bias and indirectness is the percentage contribution matrix, which shows how much information each study contributes to the results from network meta-analysis. The contribution matrix can easily be computed using a freely available web application. In evaluating imprecision, heterogeneity, and incoherence, we consider the impact of these components of variability in forming clinical decisions.
Conclusions
Via 3 examples, we show that CINeMA improves transparency and avoids the selective use of evidence when forming judgments, thus limiting subjectivity in the process. CINeMA is easy to apply even in large and complicated networks.
Klíčová slova:
Adverse events – Coronary heart disease – Diagnostic medicine – Electrocardiography – Magnetic resonance imaging – Metaanalysis – Network analysis – Statins
Zdroje
1. Zarin W, Veroniki AA, Nincic V, Vafaei A, Reynen E, Motiwala SS, et al. Characteristics and knowledge synthesis approach for 456 network meta-analyses: a scoping review. BMC Med. 2017;15:3. doi: 10.1186/s12916-016-0764-6 28052774
2. Guyatt GH, Oxman AD, Vist GE, Kunz R, Falck-Ytter Y, Alonso-Coello P, et al. GRADE: an emerging consensus on rating quality of evidence and strength of recommendations. BMJ. 2008;336:924–6. doi: 10.1136/bmj.39489.470347.AD 18436948
3. Guyatt G, Oxman AD, Akl EA, Kunz R, Vist G, Brozek J, et al. GRADE guidelines: 1. Introduction—GRADE evidence profiles and summary of findings tables. J Clin Epidemiol. 2011;64:383–94. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.04.026 21195583
4. Puhan MA, Schünemann HJ, Murad MH, Li T, Brignardello-Petersen R, Singh JA, et al. A GRADE Working Group approach for rating the quality of treatment effect estimates from network meta-analysis. BMJ. 2014;349:g5630. doi: 10.1136/bmj.g5630 25252733
5. Salanti G, Del Giovane C, Chaimani A, Caldwell DM, Higgins JPT. Evaluating the quality of evidence from a network meta-analysis. PLoS ONE. 2014;9(7):e99682. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0099682 24992266
6. Jansen JP, Trikalinos T, Cappelleri JC, Daw J, Andes S, Eldessouki R, et al. Indirect treatment comparison/network meta-analysis study questionnaire to assess relevance and credibility to inform health care decision making: an ISPOR-AMCP-NPC Good Practice Task Force report. Value Health. 2014;17:157–73. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2014.01.004 24636374
7. Hoaglin DC, Hawkins N, Jansen JP, Scott DA, Itzler R, Cappelleri JC, et al. Conducting indirect-treatment-comparison and network-meta-analysis studies: report of the ISPOR Task Force on Indirect Treatment Comparisons Good Research Practices: part 2. Value Health. 2011;14:429–37. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2011.01.011 21669367
8. Ades AE, Caldwell DM, Reken S, Welton NJ, Sutton AJ, Dias S. Evidence synthesis for decision making 7: a reviewer’s checklist. Med Decis Making. 2013;33:679–91. doi: 10.1177/0272989X13485156 23804511
9. Dias S, Sutton AJ, Ades AE, Welton NJ. Evidence synthesis for decision making 2: a generalized linear modeling framework for pairwise and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Med Decis Making. 2013;33:607–17. doi: 10.1177/0272989X12458724 23104435
10. Siontis GC, Mavridis D, Greenwood JP, Coles B, Nikolakopoulou A, Jüni P, et al. Outcomes of non-invasive diagnostic modalities for the detection of coronary artery disease: network meta-analysis of diagnostic randomised controlled trials. BMJ. 2018;360:k504. doi: 10.1136/bmj.k504 29467161
11. Naci H, Brugts J, Ades T. Comparative tolerability and harms of individual statins: a study-level network meta-analysis of 246 955 participants from 135 randomized, controlled trials. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes. 2013;6:390–9. doi: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.111.000071 23838105
12. Cipriani A, Furukawa TA, Salanti G, Chaimani A, Atkinson LZ, Ogawa Y, et al. Comparative efficacy and acceptability of 21 antidepressant drugs for the acute treatment of adults with major depressive disorder: a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Lancet. 2018;391:1357–66. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32802-7 29477251
13. CINeMA: Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis. Bern: Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine; 2017 [cited 2020 Mar 6]. Available from: https://cinema.ispm.unibe.ch/
14. Rücker G, Krahn U, König J, Efthimiou O, Schwarzer G. netmeta: network meta-analysis using frequentist methods. GitHub. 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 12]. Available from: https://github.com/guido-s/netmeta http://meta-analysis-with-r.org
15. Papakonstantinou T. flow_contribution: R package to calculate contribution of studies in network meta-analysis. GitHub; 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 6]. Available from: https://github.com/esm-ispm-unibe-ch/flow_contribution
16. Dumville JC, Soares MO, O’Meara S, Cullum N. Systematic review and mixed treatment comparison: dressings to heal diabetic foot ulcers. Diabetologia. 2012;55:1902–10. doi: 10.1007/s00125-012-2558-5 22544222
17. Hutton B, Salanti G, Caldwell DM, Chaimani A, Schmid CH, Cameron C, et al. The PRISMA extension statement for reporting of systematic reviews incorporating network meta-analyses of health care interventions: checklist and explanations. Ann Intern Med. 2015;162:777–84. doi: 10.7326/M14-2385 26030634
18. Higgins JPT, Altman DG, Gøtzsche PC, Jüni P, Moher D, Oxman AD, et al. The Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials. BMJ. 2011;343:d5928. doi: 10.1136/bmj.d5928 22008217
19. Sterne JAC, Savović J, Page MJ, Elbers RG, Blencowe NS, Boutron I, et al. RoB 2: a revised tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials. BMJ. 2019;366:l4898. doi: 10.1136/bmj.l4898 31462531
20. Guyatt GH, Oxman AD, Vist G, Kunz R, Brozek J, Alonso-Coello P, et al. GRADE guidelines: 4. Rating the quality of evidence—study limitations (risk of bias). J Clin Epidemiol. 2011;64:407–15. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.07.017 21247734
21. Brignardello-Petersen R, Bonner A, Alexander PE, Siemieniuk RA, Furukawa TA, Rochwerg B, et al. Advances in the GRADE approach to rate the certainty in estimates from a network meta-analysis. J Clin Epidemiol. 2018;93:36–44. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2017.10.005 29051107
22. Papakonstantinou T, Nikolakopoulou A, Rücker G, Chaimani A, Schwarzer G, Egger M, et al. Estimating the contribution of studies in network meta-analysis: paths, flows and streams. F1000Res. 2018;7:610. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.14770.3 30338058
23. Page MJ, McKenzie JE, Kirkham J, Dwan K, Kramer S, Green S, et al. Bias due to selective inclusion and reporting of outcomes and analyses in systematic reviews of randomised trials of healthcare interventions. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2014;(10):MR000035. doi: 10.1002/14651858.MR000035.pub2 25271098
24. Dwan K, Altman DG, Arnaiz JA, Bloom J, Chan A-W, Cronin E, et al. Systematic review of the empirical evidence of study publication bias and outcome reporting bias. PLoS ONE. 2008;3(8):e3081. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0003081 18769481
25. Dwan K, Gamble C, Williamson PR, Kirkham JJ, Reporting Bias Group. Systematic review of the empirical evidence of study publication bias and outcome reporting bias—an updated review. PLoS ONE. 2013;8(7):e66844. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0066844 23861749
26. Scherer RW, Langenberg P, von Elm E. Full publication of results initially presented in abstracts. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2007;(2)MR000005. doi: 10.1002/14651858.MR000005.pub3 17443628
27. Wager E, Williams P, Project Overcome failure to Publish nEgative fiNdings Consortium. “Hardly worth the effort”? Medical journals’ policies and their editors’ and publishers’ views on trial registration and publication bias: quantitative and qualitative study. BMJ. 2013;347:f5248. doi: 10.1136/bmj.f5248 24014339
28. Stern JM, Simes RJ. Publication bias: evidence of delayed publication in a cohort study of clinical research projects. BMJ. 1997;315:640–5. doi: 10.1136/bmj.315.7109.640 9310565
29. Dickersin K, Chalmers I. Recognizing, investigating and dealing with incomplete and biased reporting of clinical research: from Francis Bacon to the WHO. J R Soc Med. 2011;104:532–8. doi: 10.1258/jrsm.2011.11k042 22179297
30. Sterne JA, Egger M, Smith GD. Systematic reviews in health care: investigating and dealing with publication and other biases in meta-analysis. BMJ. 2001;323:101–5. doi: 10.1136/bmj.323.7304.101 11451790
31. Guyatt GH, Oxman AD, Montori V, Vist G, Kunz R, Brozek J, et al. GRADE guidelines: 5. Rating the quality of evidence—publication bias. J Clin Epidemiol. 2011;64:1277–82. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2011.01.011 21802904
32. Lexchin J, Bero LA, Djulbegovic B, Clark O. Pharmaceutical industry sponsorship and research outcome and quality: systematic review. BMJ. 2003;326:1167–70. doi: 10.1136/bmj.326.7400.1167 12775614
33. Melander H, Ahlqvist-Rastad J, Meijer G, Beermann B. Evidence b(i)ased medicine—selective reporting from studies sponsored by pharmaceutical industry: review of studies in new drug applications. BMJ. 2003;326:1171–3. doi: 10.1136/bmj.326.7400.1171 12775615
34. Turner EH, Matthews AM, Linardatos E, Tell RA, Rosenthal R. Selective publication of antidepressant trials and its influence on apparent efficacy. N Engl J Med. 2008;358:252–60. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa065779 18199864
35. Chaimani A, Salanti G. Using network meta-analysis to evaluate the existence of small-study effects in a network of interventions. Res Synth Methods. 2012;3:161–76. doi: 10.1002/jrsm.57 26062088
36. Chaimani A, Salanti G. Visualizing assumptions and results in network meta-analysis: the network graphs package. Stata J. 2015;15:905–50.
37. Mavridis D, Efthimiou O, Leucht S, Salanti G. Publication bias and small-study effects magnified effectiveness of antipsychotics but their relative ranking remained invariant. J Clin Epidemiol. 2016;69:161–9. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2015.05.027 26210055
38. Mavridis D, Sutton A, Cipriani A, Salanti G. A fully Bayesian application of the Copas selection model for publication bias extended to network meta-analysis. Stat Med. 2013;32:51–66. doi: 10.1002/sim.5494 22806991
39. Guyatt GH, Oxman AD, Kunz R, Woodcock J, Brozek J, Helfand M, et al. GRADE guidelines: 8. Rating the quality of evidence—indirectness. J Clin Epidemiol. 2011;64:1303–10. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2011.04.014 21802903
40. Bartlett C, Doyal L, Ebrahim S, Davey P, Bachmann M, Egger M, et al. The causes and effects of socio-demographic exclusions from clinical trials. Health Technol Assess. 2005;9:iii–iv,ix–x,1–152. doi: 10.3310/hta9380 16181564
41. Caldwell DM, Ades AE, Higgins JPT. Simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments: combining direct and indirect evidence. BMJ. 2005;331:897–900. doi: 10.1136/bmj.331.7521.897 16223826
42. Guyatt GH, Oxman AD, Kunz R, Woodcock J, Brozek J, Helfand M, et al. GRADE guidelines: 7. Rating the quality of evidence—inconsistency. J Clin Epidemiol. 2011;64:1294–302. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2011.03.017 21803546
43. Dias S, Welton NJ, Caldwell DM, Ades AE. Checking consistency in mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis. Stat Med. 2010;29:932–44. doi: 10.1002/sim.3767 20213715
44. Dias S, Welton NJ, Sutton AJ, Caldwell DM, Lu G, Ades AE. Evidence synthesis for decision making 4: inconsistency in networks of evidence based on randomized controlled trials. Med Decis Making. 2013;33:641–56. doi: 10.1177/0272989X12455847 23804508
45. White IR, Barrett JK, Jackson D, Higgins JPT. Consistency and inconsistency in network meta-analysis: model estimation using multivariate meta-regression. Res Synth Methods. 2012;3:111–25. doi: 10.1002/jrsm.1045 26062085
46. Higgins JPT, Jackson D, Barrett JK, Lu G, Ades AE, White IR. Consistency and inconsistency in network meta-analysis: concepts and models for multi-arm studies. Res Synth Methods. 2012;3:98–110. doi: 10.1002/jrsm.1044 26062084
47. Riley RD, Higgins JPT, Deeks JJ. Interpretation of random effects meta-analyses. BMJ. 2011;342:d549. doi: 10.1136/bmj.d549 21310794
48. Turner RM, Davey J, Clarke MJ, Thompson SG, Higgins JP. Predicting the extent of heterogeneity in meta-analysis, using empirical data from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Int J Epidemiol. 2012;41:818–27. doi: 10.1093/ije/dys041 22461129
49. Rhodes KM, Turner RM, Higgins JPT. Predictive distributions were developed for the extent of heterogeneity in meta-analyses of continuous outcome data. J Clin Epidemiol. 2015;68:52–60. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2014.08.012 25304503
50. Lu G, Ades AE. Assessing evidence inconsistency in mixed treatment comparisons. J Am Stat Assoc. 2006;101:447–59. doi: 10.1198/016214505000001302
51. Lu G, Ades A. Modeling between-trial variance structure in mixed treatment comparisons. Biostatistics. 2009;10:792–805. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxp032 19687150
52. Bucher HC, Guyatt GH, Griffith LE, Walter SD. The results of direct and indirect treatment comparisons in meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. J Clin Epidemiol. 1997;50:683–91. doi: 10.1016/s0895-4356(97)00049-8 9250266
53. Dias S, Welton NJ, Sutton AJ, Caldwell DM, Lu G, Ades AE. NICE DSU technical support document 4: inconsistency in networks of evidence based on randomised controlled trials. London: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence; 2014 [cited 2020 Mar 6]. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK310372/
54. Veroniki AA, Mavridis D, Higgins JP, Salanti G. Characteristics of a loop of evidence that affect detection and estimation of inconsistency: a simulation study. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2014;14:106. doi: 10.1186/1471-2288-14-106 25239546
55. Song F, Clark A, Bachmann MO, Maas J. Simulation evaluation of statistical properties of methods for indirect and mixed treatment comparisons. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2012;12:138. doi: 10.1186/1471-2288-12-138 22970794
56. Phillippo DM, Dias S, Welton NJ, Caldwell DM, Taske N, Ades AE. Threshold analysis as an alternative to GRADE for assessing confidence in guideline recommendations based on network meta-analyses. Ann Intern Med. 2019;170(8):538–46. doi: 10.7326/M18-3542 30909295
57. Kanters S, Ford N, Druyts E, Thorlund K, Mills EJ, Bansback N. Use of network meta-analysis in clinical guidelines. Bull World Health Organ. 2016;94:782–4. doi: 10.2471/BLT.16.174326 27843171
58. Petropoulou M, Nikolakopoulou A, Veroniki A-A, Rios P, Vafaei A, Zarin W, et al. Bibliographic study showed improving statistical methodology of network meta-analyses published between 1999 and 2015. J Clin Epidemiol. 2017;82:20–8. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.11.002 27864068
59. Papakonstantinou T, Nikolakopoulou A, Higgins JPT, Egger M, Salanti G. CINeMA: software for semiautomated assessment of the confidence in the results of network meta-analysis. Campbell Syst Rev. 2020;16:e1080. doi: 10.1002/cl2.1080
Článek vyšel v časopise
PLOS Medicine
2020 Číslo 4
- Jak a kdy u celiakie začíná reakce na lepek? Možnou odpověď poodkryla čerstvá kanadská studie
- FDA varuje před selfmonitoringem cukru pomocí chytrých hodinek. Jak je to v Česku?
- Prof. Jan Škrha: Metformin je bezpečný, ale je třeba jej bezpečně užívat a léčbu kontrolovat
- Ibuprofen jako alternativa antibiotik při léčbě infekcí močových cest
- Infekce se v Americe po příjezdu Kolumba šířily nesrovnatelně déle, než se traduje
Nejčtenější v tomto čísle
- Pre-exposure prophylaxis for preventing acquisition of HIV: A cross-sectional study of patients, prescribers, uptake, and spending in the United States, 2015–2016
- Pandemic responses: Planning to neutralize SARS-CoV-2 and prepare for future outbreaks
- HIV testing and treatment coverage achieved after 4 years across 14 urban and peri-urban communities in Zambia and South Africa: An analysis of findings from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial
- Hepatitis B virus seroepidemiology data for Africa: Modelling intervention strategies based on a systematic review and meta-analysis